Kim Jong-un Succession Story and Hillary Clinton

Another North Korean issue is rattling the world. This time, nuclear programs and missiles have been pushed out of the limelight. The name of Kim Jong-il's third son, Jong-un, has taken their place. Rumors that Jong-un was named successor to his father have sparked concerns throughout the world, which is keenly watching North Korea ― concerns of a possible ``explosion" greater than that of the actual nuclear issue in a military sense.

The world's interest dramatically shifted away from North Korea's nuclear issues to a succession of power that could potentially
act as another nuclear bomb in the form of regime collapse. This shift of attention probably has North Korea puzzled, even dumbfounded.

Why? Because North Korea leaked talk of Jong-un's succession with the intention of ``focusing" global interest on the nuclear issue and finishing up nuclear-related negotiations with the United States, not directing attention away from the nuclear issue to succession.

So what made North Korea leak the succession rumor?

Here's a thought. North Korea pushed forward with the test launch of a long-range satellite rocket on April 5 and conducted its second nuclear test shortly after, threatening the United States and Japan. It also conducted medium-range coastal artillery fire on the West Sea, posing an all-directional threat to South Korea. However, the responses from the United States and neighbors were not what North Korea had in mind. In fact, the responses were completely opposite to the North's intended goal of its ``armed military-first diplomacy." North Korea launched the long-range rocket and went on with the nuclear test in order to drag the United States into nuclear negotiations. However, the superpower and South Korea approached the North's military threats with a bigger confrontational card.

The North revved up the engine for dialogue by fostering a confrontational environment, but the South and the United States rejected dialogue under the name of a stronger alliance. Furthermore, they vowed greater retaliation against the North's military provocations. It was then that the rumor of North Korea's succession gradually filtered out of the secretive state.

There was no official announcement of who would be the successor. Neither was the name of the successor clearly presented. So far, all the talk of Jong-un's succession from North Korea has been from second-hand accounts, metaphorical and suggestive. The North has never officially said Jong-un will succeed Kim Jong-il. North Korea is only sending out enough propaganda for anyone with common sense to be nearly certain that Jong-un will be the successor.

This is why my bet is on the idea that talks of succession in North Korea are directed at getting the United States interested, rather than officially championing Jong-un as the successor. In particular, the rumor is one of North Korea's strategies in dealing with the United States, aimed at garnering the interest of State Secretary Hillary Clinton.

Here is why. The series of rumors surrounding North Korea's succession emanating from the North correspond with Clinton's remarks made on Feb. 19 on the succession structure of North Korea. North Korea's all-directional military artillery showoff is likely to be a strategy based on the secretary's comments.

Clinton's first trip as secretary was to four Asian nations: Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China. On the plane from Jakarta to Seoul on Feb. 19, she made a rather shocking remark, saying that the leadership situation in North Korea is unclear and that the United States is concerned about North Korea possibly facing a crisis over succession sometime soon. She went a step further in saying that the U.S. government is concerned about heightened tensions in North Korea and neighboring countries if a succession battle unravels and changes take place in the leadership system in North Korea.

This comment suggests why North Korea is driving inter-Korean relations to their worst level with armed provocations. But let's take a step further. The key part of Clinton's comments was that changes in the North Korean leadership are holding back the discussions on dismantling nuclear weapons and that ``our goal is, try to come up with a strategy … at a time when the whole leadership situation is somewhat unclear." Clinton also said that North Korea's succession is a roadblock to the six-party talks. She also added that in the process of deciding its successor, North Korea is highly likely to engage in provocations.

Now, one can guess why North Korea conducted its second nuclear test following the long-range rocket launch, held two U.S. female journalists as hostages, transported an intercontinental ballistic missile to a test site in Dongchang-ni, Chulsan-gun, North Pyongan Province just 70 kilometers away from the Yongbyon nuclear facility, and recently moved another ICBM from a missile research center in Saneum-dong, Pyongyang, to a test site in Musudan-ri. Why did North Korea choose to play the worst in U.S.-threatening cards, such as declaring uranium enrichment, rejecting U.N. Resolution 1874 on the second nuclear test, pushing forward with a third nuclear test, and reprocessing spent fuel rods at the Yongbyon nuclear facility?

One must focus on the fact that talks of succession in North Korea are linked with the issues listed above. North Korea's worst series of armed threats to South Korea since the Korean War is based on Clinton's remarks on the concerns of heightened tensions in North Korea and neighboring countries following changes in the North Korean leadership. By the secretary's comments, North Korea learned of the gravest concern to the United States. Now, North Korea is intentionally maximizing military threats and demonstrations against the South in order to gain U.S. interest.

It was on the extension of this strategy against the United States that the rumor of Jong-un's succession came out. The decisive factor in North Korea's decision to leak the succession rumor as its U.S. strategy was the part where Clinton stressed that the United States hopes to find a strategy while the leadership situation in the North is unclear. North Korea has been conducting armed demonstrations against the United States, South Korea and Japan because it wants to attract their attention and conclude nuclear negotiations with the United States as soon as possible. However, the U.S. response to the North's strategy was to ignore the North. That is why the North's nuclear and missile tests have failed as a tool to interest the United States and lead it to nuclear negotiations.

For North Korea, Clinton's remarks hinted at the fastest way to bring the United States to the nuclear negotiation table. In other words, they found that Clinton was gravely concerned about two possibilities: that in the process of a power transfer to the 26-year-old Jong-un, North Korean politics would fall into a turmoil of extreme domestic chaos and that North Korea's nuclear weapons would no longer be stably controlled; the second worry is over a successful coup by military hawks who would then take control of the nukes, completely veiling the management of the weapons under total uncertainty. This is why North Korea intentionally spread word of succession, thereby signaling the possibility that nuclear control in North Korea could be thrown into uncertainty in the face of political instability in the process of succession. Rumors of succession thus surfaced as North Korea's strategy against the United States, not as an actual plan to establish the succession system.

North Korea rejected the six-party talks and wants one-on-one talks with the United States, seeing what Clinton said on North Korea's succession issue as a roadblock to the six-party talks. She also added that in the process of deciding its successor, North Korea is highly likely to engage in provocations. Clinton's comments appear to have acted as a ``spot-on, step-by-step roadmap" to the North's recent series of armed actions. The North Korean nuclear issue is not as high on the Obama administration's diplomatic agenda as the Taliban in Afghanistan and nuclear issues in Pakistan. The Taliban has fought back and claimed 70 percent of the entire land of Afghanistan, and once they reclaim the country, Pakistan will be their next target. Then, Pakistan's nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of the Taliban, which could launch a nuclear attack on the United States, which is the worst-case scenario.

The United States is thus doing all it can to stabilize politics in Afghanistan and Pakistan as soon as possible. In the meantime, North Korea is playing its succession card to portray political instability in order to maximize uncertainty over nuclear control.

Talks of Jong-un's succession, along with the nuclear test and armed demonstrations, are a means to interest the United States. The rumors are apparently a strategic card to negotiate nuclear issues with the United States, rather than establish a succession structure in light of the rapidly worsening state of Kim Jong-il's health.

North Korea's nuclear test, missile test launch, and all-out armed demonstrations against the United States, South Korea and Japan are means of military-first diplomacy to interest the superpower and conclude nuclear negotiations as soon as possible ― they are not directed at stabilizing Jong-un's succession. I don't think North Korea is that foolish. If North Korea is building up tension through its armed demonstrations in order to solidify the succession system, that means the North's nuclear weapons are not means of diplomatic negotiations but regime protection.

Then there would be no point in negotiating the nuclear issue. I don't believe North Korea would develop a strategy against the United States that is based on such a foolish lapse of judgment. North Korea leaked word of succession to create a situation, based on Clinton's remarks, which will be the gravest concern of the United States in order to attract its interest. However, since talks of succession came out, the United States and neighboring countries have been focusing on Jong-un, setting aside the nuclear and missile issues. In other words, Kim Jong-un is overshadowing nuclear and missile issues.

North Korea made a serious mistake by spreading word of succession ― it lost both nuclear and missile leverage. The North launched all-out armed demonstrations, expecting the United States to be active in negotiating nuclear issues once word of succession leaked out. Bur the strategy unexpectedly backfired. As more word spreads of North Korea's succession, outside observations on the North's political system will lean closer to regime collapse. Then, Kim Jong-il's system will appear to be on the brink of a very unstable situation and no negotiation or dialogue will be done with the North for the time being. The consensus will be to wait and watch where North Korea is headed. I wonder what card the North will play next.

smjjang21@gmail.com

Jang Sung-min was a secretary for political affairs to former President Kim Dae-jung and member of the National Assembly. He is currently president of the World and Northeast Asia Peace Forum and a director of the Korean Association of International Studies (KAIS). He authored ``War and Peace: the Future of North Korea After Kim Jong-il'' and ``The Bush Administration's Foreign Policy and Korea.''

koreatimes